Time and frequency domains response analyses of April 2015 Greece’s earthquake in the Nile Delta based on GNSS-PPP

Earthquake response characteristic and sensitivity of 1-Hz Global Navigation Satellite System - precise point positioning (GNSS-PPP) for a seismic response in time and frequency domains are the main objectives of this study. The Delta and Cairo areas, Egypt, experiencing the shock of the Greece earthquake occurring on April 16, 2015 (18:50 hours), is presented in this study. The results of this study reveal that the seismic wave effect is very small and can be neglected inside the Delta region and the strong motion occurred in an upward direction for the whole monitoring area. Furthermore, the time-frequency analysis illustrates the ability of the time and frequency domains to use and analyze the surface motion based on a 1-Hz sampling frequency and to detect the small- and high-strength motions of seismic waves.     

Monitoring and prediction of land use/land cover changes using CA-Markov model: a case study of Ravansar County in Iran

Human‐induced land use/land cover (LULC) changes are among the most important processes that shape the dynamics of the earth’s surface. This phenomenon, which is occurring at an astonishing rate, and its consequential environmental impacts have become an important area of research for scientists.Therefore, a wide range of methods and models have been developed to detect and predict these alterations, among which cellular automata (CA) models such as the CA‐Markov model, due to their affinity to geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS), are appropriate for detailed resolution modelling and simulating dynamic spatial processes. In Iran, the district of Ravansar has undergone severe LULC changes recently, thus to take the necessary precautions, decision‐makers need to predict and determine the extent of these changes. In this study, using spatial analysis methods the LULC changes in Ravansar were investigated from 1992 to 2015. Subsequently, the CA‐Markov model was applied to simulate the spatial pattern changes of LULC until 2030. Our results indicated that from 1992 to 2015, this region has witnessed a noticeable increase in the areas of the built‐up and agricultural lands (both aquatic and non‐aquatic), resulting in the decrease of the gardens, range, and bare lands. The simulated LULC map showed that this trend will continue due to more urbanization and development of agricultural areas.     

Monthly suspended sediment load prediction using artificial intelligence: testing of a new random subspace method

ABSTRACT

The predictive capability of a new artificial intelligence method, random subspace (RS), for the prediction of suspended sediment load in rivers was compared with commonly used methods: random forest (RF) and two support vector machine (SVM) models using a radial basis function kernel (SVM-RBF) and a normalized polynomial kernel (SVM-NPK). Using river discharge, rainfall and river stage data from the Haraz River, Iran, the results revealed: (a) the RS model provided a superior predictive accuracy (NSE = 0.83) to SVM-RBF (NSE = 0.80), SVM-NPK (NSE = 0.78) and RF (NSE = 0.68), corresponding to very good, good, satisfactory and unsatisfactory accuracies in load prediction; (b) the RBF kernel outperformed the NPK kernel; (c) the predictive capability was most sensitive to gamma and epsilon in SVM models, maximum depth of a tree and the number of features in RF models, classifier type, number of trees and subspace size in RS models; and (d) suspended sediment loads were most closely correlated with river discharge (PCC = 0.76). Overall, the results show that RS models have great potential in data poor watersheds, such as that studied here, to produce strong predictions of suspended load based on monthly records of river discharge, rainfall depth and river stage alone.     

Effect of seabed instability on fixed offshore platforms

Storms, hurricanes, and earthquakes may cause seabed instability, especially if the seabed is weak. The seabed instability, manifested in movement of soil layers, exerts lateral forces that may cause large stresses in offshore foundations. The induced stresses may compromise the stability of the foundation and supported structure. The effect of seabed instability on a fixed offshore structure is examined in this study. The method used accounts for soil nonlinearity, dynamic soil resistance, and pile–soil–pile interaction within the stable soil layer. Dynamic p–y curves, dynamic t–z curves and q–z curves have been used to simulate the soil resistance in the lateral and axial directions. The effect of different parameters that influence the response of offshore structures to seabed instability is evaluated. The parameters considered include the value of soil movement, the sliding layer depth, the wave loading, the pile flexibility, the soil movement profile, and the axial loading at the pile head. The response predicted using the proposed analysis compared well with that calculated using a boundary element solution for a case history of a failed offshore platform.     

An analytical theory of resonant scattering of SH waves by thin overground structures

Scattering of SH waves in a half-space with simple overground structures is studied analytically. For two-dimensional structures, such as shells, shear walls and a slab-bridge over a river, the method of matched asymptotics is used for sinusoidal waves long compared to the thickness of the structures. Resonance features are deduced analytically and calculated numerically for various incidences and other parameters.     

Optimal water and waste load allocation in reservoir–river systems: a case study

In this paper, a new methodology is developed for optimization of water and waste load allocation in reservoir–river systems considering the existing uncertainties in reservoir inflow, waste loads and water demands. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model is used to optimize reservoir operation considering the inflow uncertainty, and another model called PSO-SA is developed and linked with the SDP model for optimizing water and waste load allocation in downstream river. In the PSO-SA model, a particle swarm optimization technique with a dynamic penalty function for handling the constraints is used to optimize water and waste load allocation policies. Also, a simulated annealing technique is utilized for determining the upper and lower bounds of constraints and objective function considering the existing uncertainties. As the proposed water and waste load allocation model has a considerable run-time, some powerful soft computing techniques, namely, Regression tree Induction (named M5P), fuzzy K-nearest neighbor, Bayesian network, support vector regression and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, are trained and validated using the results of the proposed methodology to develop real-time water and waste load allocation rules. To examine the efficiency and applicability of the methodology, it is applied to the Dez reservoir–river system in the south-western part of Iran.     

Magnetic mineralogy of some ring complexes from the South Eastern Desert,Egypt

Ore microscopic study was carried out on a great number of samples collected from four well-dated alkaline rock masses (ring complexes), namely Gabal Mishbeh, Gabal Nigrub El Fogani, Gabal Nigrub El Tahtani, and Gabal El Gezira located in the Eastern Desert of Egypt. These rings consist mainly of wide variety of rock types ranging from basic to acidic and from under saturated to quartz bearing. The opaques of the basic rocks consist mainly of various ilmenite–magnetite intergrowths and differ essentially from those of the acidic rocks where minor amount of titanomagnetite is present. Numerous exsolution, replacement, and deformational textures were described. The distribution of opaque minerals and their intergrowths in the four well-defined ring complexes is described. Systematic rock magnetic measurements such as natural remanent magnetization intensity and initial susceptibility, Curie point, saturation magnetization, and coercive force were carried out, and their results were discussed in the light of opaque mineralogical studies.     

Relative contributions of crust and mantle to generation of Oligo-Miocene medium-K calc-alkaline I-type granitoids in a subduction setting—a case study from the Nabar Pluton,central Iran

The Nabar pluton with the age of Oligo-Miocene located northwest of Isfahan, the Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic belt, is composed of gabbro, gabbro diorite, diorite, quartz diorite, tonalite, and quartz monzonite. These rocks contain plagioclase, quartz, alkali-feldspar, magnesiohornblende, actinolite, tremolite-hornblende, actinolite-hornblende, anthophyllite, biotite, and Na-poor pyroxene. Application of the Al-in-hornblende barometry indicates pressures of 2–2.15 kbar, whereas the clinopyroxene barometry shows a pressure of 5 kbar. The temperature (i.e., 750–800°C) is estimated using the amphibole-clinopyroxene thermometry in a dioritic sample. Magmatic water content was greater than 10% at the time of formation of dioritic rocks in the Nabar pluton. Based on chemistry of mafic minerals and geochemical data, the Nabar plutonic complex comprises medium-K, calc-alkaline, and I-type granitoid. The rocks are characterized by enrichment of lithophile elements (LILEs) and depletion of high-field-strength elements (HFSEs). The Nabar rocks have weak concave-upward rare earth element (REE) patterns, suggesting that amphibole played a significant role in their generation during magma segregation. Low (Al₂O₃/(FeO + MgO + TiO₂) and (Na₂O + K₂O)/(FeO + MgO + TiO₂) ratios, and the patterns of trace and rare earth elements suggest that these rocks formed along a destructive plate margin and were derived from a lower crustal source. The magma probably formed by partial melting of lower crustal protoliths (amphibolites). Lower crust contamination with magma derived from partial melting of the upper mantle has an important role in the formation of this intrusive body, and a fractional crystallization of melts in higher crustal levels generated this spectrum of rock types. Mantle-derived gabbroic magmas emplaced into the lower crust are the most likely heat sources for partial melting.